Perry, Stephen

October 2019 NFH Board Meeting Summary: This document summarizes the National Fish Habitat Board's October 23 - 24, 2019 in-person meeting.
Located in About EBTJV / National Fish Habitat Board Meetings / 2019 NFH Board Meetings
Patch Metrics: A Cost Effective Method for Monitoring Brook Trout Populations - Hudy et al. 2013: This paper describes a cost effective method for monitoring short and long term trends of Chesapeake Bay's Brook Trout populations.
Located in Science and Data / Brook Trout Related Publications / Chesapeake Bay Brook Trout Management Strategy-References
Patch-Based Metrics: A Cost Effective Method for Short- and Long-Term Monitoring of EBTJV Wild Brook Trout Populations? - Whiteley et al. 2012: This document describes a methodology for monitoring Brook Trout population trends.
Located in Science and Data / Brook Trout Related Publications / Chesapeake Bay Brook Trout Management Strategy-References
Population regulation of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in Hunt Creek, Michigan: a 50-year study: 1. Fisheries models generally are based on the concept that strong density dependence exists in fish populations. Nonetheless, there are few examples of long-term density dependence in fish populations. 2. Using an information theoretical approach (AIC) with regression analyses, we examined the explanatory power of density dependence, flow and water temperature on the per capita rate of change and growth (annual mean total length) for the whole population, adults, 1+ and young-of-the-year (YOY) brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in Hunt Creek, Michigan, USA, between 1951 and 2001. This time series represents one of the longest quantitative population data sets for fishes. 3. Our analysis included four data sets: (i) Pooled (1951–2001), (ii) Fished (1951–65), (iii) Unfished (1966–2001) and (iv) Temperature (1982–2001). 4. Principle component analyses of winter flow data identified a gradient between years with high mean daily winter flows, high daily maximum and minimum flows and frequent high flow events, and years with an opposite set of flow characteristics. Flows were lower during the Fished Period than during the Unfished Period. Winter temperature analyses elucidated a gradient between warm mean, warm minimum and maximum daily stream temperatures and a high number of minimum daily temperatures >6.1 C, and years with the opposite characteristics. Summer temperature analyses contrasted years with warm summer stream temperatures vs years with cool summer stream temperatures. 5. Both YOY and adult densities varied several-fold during the study. Regression analysis did not detect a significant linear or nonlinear stock–recruitment relationship. AIC analysis indicated that density dependence was present in 15 of 16 cases (four population segments · four data sets) for both per capita rate of increase (wi values 0.46–1.00) and growth data (wi values 0.28–0.99). The almost ubiquitous presence of density dependence in both population and growth data is concordant with results from other trout populations and other studies in Michigan.
Located in Science and Data / Brook Trout Related Publications
Population Response to Habitat Fragmentation in a Stream-Dwelling Brook Trout Population: Fragmentation can strongly influence population persistence and expression of life-history strategies in spatially-structured populations. In this study, we directly estimated size-specific dispersal, growth, and survival of stream-dwelling brook trout in a stream network with connected and naturally-isolated tributaries. We used multiple-generation, individual-based data to develop and parameterize a size-class and location-based population projection model, allowing us to test effects of fragmentation on population dynamics at local (i.e., subpopulation) and system-wide (i.e., metapopulation) scales, and to identify demographic rates which influence the persistence of isolated and fragmented populations. In the naturally-isolated tributary, persistence was associated with higher early juvenile survival (,45% greater), shorter generation time (one-half) and strong selection against large body size compared to the open system, resulting in a stage-distribution skewed towards younger, smaller fish. Simulating barriers to upstream migration into two currently-connected tributary populations caused rapid (2–6 generations) local extinction. These local extinctions in turn increased the likelihood of system-wide extinction, as tributaries could no longer function as population sources. Extinction could be prevented in the open system if sufficient immigrants from downstream areas were available, but the influx of individuals necessary to counteract fragmentation effects was high (7–46% of the total population annually). In the absence of sufficient immigration, a demographic change (higher early survival characteristic of the isolated tributary) was also sufficient to rescue the population from fragmentation, suggesting that the observed differences in size distributions between the naturally-isolated and open system may reflect an evolutionary response to isolation. Combined with strong genetic divergence between the isolated tributary and open system, these results suggest that local adaptation can ‘rescue’ isolated populations, particularly in one-dimensional stream networks where both natural and anthropogenically-mediated isolation is common. However, whether rescue will occur before extinction depends critically on the race between adaptation and reduced survival in response to fragmentation.
Located in Science and Data / Brook Trout Related Publications
Predicting Brook Trout Occurrence in Stream Reaches throughout their Native Range in the Eastern United States - DeWeber and Wagner 2015: This publication describes a model that was developed to predict Brook Trout population status within individual stream reaches throughout the species' native range in the eastern USA.
Located in Science and Data / Brook Trout Related Publications / Chesapeake Bay Brook Trout Management Strategy-References
Predicting Brook Trout Occurrence in Stream Reaches throughout their Native Range in the Eastern United States: The Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis is an important species of conservation concern in the eastern USA. We developed a model to predict Brook Trout population status within individual stream reaches throughout the species’ native range in the eastern USA. We utilized hierarchical logistic regression with Bayesian estimation to predict Brook Trout occurrence probability, and we allowed slopes and intercepts to vary among ecological drainage units (EDUs). Model performance was similar for 7,327 training samples and 1,832 validation samples based on the area under the receiver operating curve (»0.78) and Cohen’s kappa statistic (0.44). Predicted water temperature had a strong negative effect on Brook Trout occurrence probability at the stream reach scale and was also negatively associated with the EDU average probability of Brook Trout occurrence (i.e., EDU-specific intercepts). The effect of soil permeability was positive but decreased as EDU mean soil permeability increased. Brook Trout were less likely to occur in stream reaches surrounded by agricultural or developed land cover, and an interaction suggested that agricultural land cover also resulted in an increased sensitivity to water temperature. Our model provides a further understanding of how Brook Trout are shaped by habitat characteristics in the region and yields maps of stream-reach-scale predictions, which together can be used to support ongoing conservation and management efforts. These decision support tools can be used to identify the extent of potentially suitable habitat, estimate historic habitat losses, and prioritize conservation efforts by selecting suitable stream reaches for a given action. Future work could extend the model to account for additional landscape or habitat characteristics, include biotic interactions, or estimate potential Brook Trout responses to climate and land use changes.
Located in Science and Data / Brook Trout Related Publications
Probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty from maximum temperature metric selection: Predictions of the projected changes in species distribution models and potential adaptation action benefits can help guide conservation actions. There is substantial uncertainty in projecting species distributions into an unknown future, however, which can undermine confidence in predictions or misdirect conservation actions if not properly considered. Recent studies have shown that the selection of alternative climate metrics describing very different climatic aspects (e.g., mean air temperature vs. mean precipitation) can be a substantial source of projection uncertainty. It is unclear, however, how much projection uncertainty might stem from selecting among highly correlated, ecologically similar climate metrics (e.g., maximum temperature in July, maximum 30-day temperature) describing the same climatic aspect (e.g., maximum temperatures) that is known to limit a species’ distribution. It is also unclear how projection uncertainty might propagate into predictions of the potential benefits of adaptation actions that might lessen climate change effects. We provide probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty stemming from the selection of four maximum temperature metrics for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a cold-water salmonid of conservation concern in the eastern U.S. Projected losses in suitable stream length varied by as much as 20% among alternative maximum temperature metrics for mid-century climate projections, which was similar to variation among three climate models. Similarly, the regional average predicted increase in brook trout occurrence probability under an adaptation action scenario of full riparian forest restoration varied by as much as 0.2 among metrics. Our use of Bayesian inference provides probabilistic measures of vulnerability and adaptation action benefits for individual stream reaches that properly address statistical uncertainty and can help guide conservation actions. Our study demonstrates that even relatively small differences in the definitions of climate metrics can result in very different projections and reveal high uncertainty in predicted climate change effects.
Located in Science and Data / Brook Trout Related Publications
Project Completion Reports: This folder contains project completion reports that were submitted by the principal investigator(s) for those Brook Trout conservation projects that received EBTJV/FWS-NFHAP funding support.
Located in Projects
Project Sheet for Marsh Brook Road: Status report on the Marsh Brook Road project.
Located in Projects / … / 2013 Projects / Upper White River Habitat Restoration, VT

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